Manpower Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis for Afghan Education Policy

Authors

  • Benjamin Marlin United States Army TRADOC Analysis Center & New Mexico State University
  • Hansuk Sohn New Mexico State University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23055/ijietap.2013.20.3-4.913

Keywords:

Manpower model, sensitivity analysis, Afghanistan, education policy, mixed integer linear program.

Abstract

This paper provides a demand based balance of flow manpower model premised in mathematical programming to provide insight into the potential futures of the Afghan Education System. Over the previous three decades, torn from multiple wars and an intolerant governing regime, the education system in Afghanistan has been decimated. Over the past 10 years Afghanistan and the international community have dedicated a substantial amount of resources to educate the youth of Afghanistan. By forecasting student demand we are able to determine points of friction in the teacher production policy regarding grade level, gender, and province across a medium-term time horizon. We modify the model to provide sensitivity analysis to inform policies. Examples of such policies are accounting for the length of teacher training programs and encouragement of inter-provincial teacher moves. By later applying a stochastic optimization model potential outcomes regarding changes in teacher retention attributed to policy decisions, incentives to teach, or security concerns are highlighted. This model was developed in support of the validation of a large scale simulation regarding the same subject.

Author Biographies

Benjamin Marlin, United States Army TRADOC Analysis Center & New Mexico State University

Benjamin Marlin received a B.S. degree in Systems Engineering from the United States Military Academy, West Point, NY in 1996 and a M.S. in Operations Research from the Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, CA in 2009. Over the past 17 years, has served in various positions as both an Infantryman and an Analyst for the United States Army.  Currently, he is pursuing a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from New Mexico State University.  Specific areas of interest are simulation modeling, experimental design, education planning, and utility theory.

Hansuk Sohn, New Mexico State University

Hansuk Sohn received the B.S. degree in industrial engineering from Sung-Kyun-Kwan University, Seoul, Korea, in 1992 and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in industrial engineering from the University of Iowa, Iowa City, in 1995 and 2004, respectively. He is currently teaching and conducting research on operations research, with a primary interest in optimization algorithms and applications. Specific applications of interests are energy distribution and logistics management, fleet routing and scheduling, road safety, and health care.

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Published

2013-08-20

How to Cite

Marlin, B., & Sohn, H. (2013). Manpower Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis for Afghan Education Policy. International Journal of Industrial Engineering: Theory, Applications and Practice, 20(3-4). https://doi.org/10.23055/ijietap.2013.20.3-4.913

Issue

Vol. 20 No. 3-4 (2013)

Section

Modelling and Simulation

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