EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS IN THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SEIR (SUSCEPTIBLE-EXPOSED-INFECTED-RELEASED) AGENT-BASED MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23055/ijietap.2023.30.3.8339Keywords:
agent based simulation, SEIR model, Stochastic Simulation, COVID-19, population synthesisAbstract
The advent of population synthesis has paved the way for the development of urban microsimulation studies, particularly in epidemiology. Thus, models must utilize synthetic populations that accurately match the actual population of a region, which is essential for large-scale agent-based modelling (ABM) efficiency and validity of large-scale ABMs. Although multiple population synthesis models exist, little is known about whether the errors generated during synthetic population generation can propagate through the simulation model and affect outcomes; this is the aim of this study. The SEIR-ABM is required to simulate the dynamics of disease spread independently using the resulting synthetic population generated through Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The performance metrics used to assess the goodness of fit of IPF showed a high percentage of error compared with MCMC, specifically for the type of commuting and spatial locations of synthetic agents. In addition, a slight variation in the working-class group between the population models resulted in different inferences in the disease spread prediction. For instance, the average peaks of new infections in the IPF and MCMC models were 42.2 and 34.7, respectively. The simulation results indicated that inherent errors in social network attributes concede to the mispredictions of epidemiological simulation outcomes.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The Author(s) must formally transfer each article's copyright before publication in the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING. Such transfer enables the Journal to defend itself against plagiarism and other forms of copyright infringement. Your cooperation is appreciated.
You agree that the copyright of your article to be published in the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING - THEORY, APPLICATIONS, AND PRACTICE is hereby transferred, throughout the World and for the full term and all extensions and renewals thereof, to INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING - THEORY, APPLICATIONS, AND PRACTICE.
The Author(s) reserve(s): (a) the trademark rights and patent rights, if any, and (b) the right to use all or part of the information contained in this article in future, non-commercial works of the Author's own, or, if the article is a "work-for-hire" and made within the scope of the Author's employment, the employer may use all or part of the information contained in this article for intra-company use, provided the usual acknowledgments are given regarding copyright notice and reference to the original publication.
The Author(s) warrant(s) that the article is Author's original work and has not been published before. If excerpts from copyrighted works are included, the Author will obtain written permission from the copyright owners and credit the article's sources.
The author also warrants that the article contains no libelous or unlawful statements and does not infringe on the rights of others. If the article was prepared jointly with other Author(s), the Author agrees to inform the co-Author(s) of the terms of the copyright transfer and to sign on their behalf; or in the case of a "work-for-hire," the employer or an authorized representative of the employer.
The journal does not provide the author copy of the final paper when it is published. The author(s) can make(s) a subscription to INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING - THEORY, APPLICATIONS, AND PRACTICE if they want to get the final paper that has already been published.
The journal is registered with the Library of Congress (ISSN # 1943-670X). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the journal.
The author reserves patent and trademark rights and the right to use all or part of the information contained in the article in future non-commercial works.
